Planning For Sea Level Rise

What is sea level rise?

Solano communities along the bay are vulnerable to more frequent and destructive flooding events due to sea level rise. Planning for Sea Level Rise is key to protecting Solano County residents, infrastructure, and the natural environment.

Watch the explainer video "Rising Tides: Understanding Sea Level Rise" from NASA Climate Change on the causes and impacts of sea level rise.

Photo: John Alvero

Quick Facts

The Bay Area is expected to experience an additional 10 inches of sea level rise by 2050, and 2-7 feet of sea level rise by 2100 (BCDC RSAP, 2024).
San Francisco Bay shoreline makes up ⅓ of California’s coastline but is expected to experience ⅔ of the state’s total economic damage because of rising sea levels (BCDC RSAP, 2024).
Sea level rise can lead to increased risk of flooding, loss of biodiversity, habitat contraction, groundwater rise and contamination, and can lead to housing units becoming no longer habitable, insurable, or desirable places to live.

Why does Solano County need to plan for sea level rise?

In the face of rising seas, Solano County must build capacity to proactively plan for shoreline resilience. By starting now, we are able to create comprehensive, meaningful, and actionable plans for sea level rise adaptation. Planning for sea level rise will allow communities and nature to thrive.

The San Francisco Bay Conservation and Development Commission has released the Regional Shoreline Adaptation Plan, which provides guidelines for a regional approach to planning for sea level rise in the Bay Area.

Solano County and the cities of Vallejo Fairfield, Suisun City, and Benicia, as well as surrounding unincorporated areas within the BCDC jurisdiction, have joined together to conduct the Solano Bayshore Resiliency Project, a collaborative sea level rise adaptation planning effort.

Photo: John Alvero

Who will be impacted by sea level rise?

Sea level rise will impact everyone, but some communities may be less able to adapt to the impacts of rising sea levels due to ongoing economic, social, and racial inequities.

Increased vulnerability to the impacts of sea level rise can be influenced by several factors, including:

Home ownership status

Income level

Educational attainment

Infrastructure investment

Access to healthcare and social services

Language barriers

People that may be disproportionately harmed by sea level rise within Solano County and surrounding unincorporated areas include the:

Filipino, Black, and Hispanic and Latino communities,
Renters and low-income households,
Residents in low-lying coastal areas, and
Residents in state-designated "disadvantaged communities” in the project area (including Vallejo, Fairfield, and Suisun City).

Additional Information:

Sea level rise is driven by a combination of global climate change and environmental factors.
- Warmer temperatures increase the thermal expansion of seawater, accounting for approximately 1/3 of global sea level rise.
- Melting ice sheets and glaciers on land.
Sea levels in the Bay Area have risen eight inches from 1900 to 2000.
In 2023, the State Bill (SB) 272 required all local governments in the nine county Bay Area to develop Subregional Shoreline Adaptation Plans. To standardize and guide plan development, the Bay Conservation and Development Commission (BCDC) developed the Regional Shoreline Adaptation Plan (RSAP), which provides instructions on the components included in each plan. The Regional Shoreline Adaptation Plan Atlas provides geospatial data on flood hazards, community assets, and infrastructure to inform subregional plans.
Sea level rise projections in the 2024 Guidance are specific to California and are built from the latest global climate projections from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The RSAP requires local governments to assess vulnerabilities to four coastal hazards exacerbated by sea level rise: tidal inundation, storm surge, emergent groundwater, and shallow groundwater.
- Tidal inundation is permanent. With sea level rise, the area that is permanently inundated with increase.
- Storm surge refers to temporary flooding that recedes once a storm passes, but the area that is flooded with increase with sea level rise. Coastal storms with sea level rise will accelerate erosion, beach loss, and mobilize contaminants.
- Shallow groundwater rise occurs when sea level rise infiltrates groundwater aquifers. Since saltwater is more dense than freshwater, the freshwater is pusehd upward. This flooding from below can damage underground infrastructure and mobilize subsurface contaminants.
- As groundwater is pushed upwards, water close to the surface may emerge, leading to localized flooding in inland areas unprepared for coastal flooding.